Free MLB Picks - MLB Best Bets Today May 13
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MLB Free Prop Bets - Free MLB Picks 5/13
Rafael Devers (BOS) Over 1.5 Total Bases (-105; Fan Duel)
Rafael Devers was off to a slow start to the season due to injuries, but he is hitting the ball better. Devers has four home runs this season, but he is heating up, notching two doubles over the weekend. Tonight, he gets an amazing matchup against the Rays. Devers is batting .296 against right-handed pitching, and all four of his 11 homers have come off a righty. Six of his nine doubles have come against righties. Devers is 5-11 in his career off of Zach Eflin, with two home runs and two doubles.
Last season, Eflin allowed nine of his 19 home runs to lefties, and this season, he has allowed one of his seven home runs to lefties. Eflin's seven home runs allowed are near the top of the league. The Rays have one of the worst bullpens in baseball, and they are susceptible to the long ball and they have bad advanced metrics.. We are backing the best hitter on the Red Sox to continue his success against Eflin and the Rays.
Nick Castellanos (PHI) Over .5 Total Bases (+140; Caesars)
Nick Castellanos is one of the streakiest hitters in the MLB, but he has caught his groove. Castellonos went yard twice this past series, and he has four home runs this season. Two of his four home runs have come off of left-handed pitchers, and today at Citi Field, he certainly has a chance to hit his fifth of the year or put one in a gap.
Sean Manaea has allowed just one home run so far this season, but the way Castellanos is swinging the bat, we are riding the hot bat. Castellanos is 5-8 against Manaea, with two home runs and a double. He has an average exit velocity of 96.4 miles per hour and an average launch angle of 16.9 degrees. Casteallanos' ability to beat up lefties in his current form and his history against Manaea make this one of the best looks of the day.
Reynaldo Lopez (ATL) Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+122; FanDuel)
Lopez's strikeout numbers have been great this season, and tonight, he has a great matchup against the strikeout-heavy Cubs. Lopez is in the 69th percentile for K rate, the 72nd for whiff percentage, and the 68th for chase rate. He has cleared this number in four starts this season.
Chicago is 10th in the MLB in whiff rate this season. Over their last 14 games, the Cubs have a 23.8% K rate against right-handed pitching, which is one of the worst marks in the MLB. On the season, their Cubs K rate against righties is 23.7%, so it is right in line with their current form. Lopez has a 35.3% K rate in 17 plate appearances against the Cubs' current roster.
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Bryan Leonard
Major League Baseball
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917 Cleveland at Texas
The Guardians finally came alive yesterday against the White Sox to salvage a game in the series. Texas really struggled offensively against a poor Colorado pitching staff. Despite the fact that neither team is hitting well, we like the offenses to do some damage here.
Tanner Bibee has managed some decent nimbers thus far, but his fastball run value is in the 1st percentile according to Baseball Savant. If you are getting hit on your fastball at this level, yiou are going to get hit hard. Michael Lorenzen signed late and is still not up to where he would be with a full spring training. We take advantage of that on Monday.
PLAY OVER
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Steve Merril
Major League Baseball
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Colorado starter Dakota Hudson projects to give up 3.2 runs with a 5.24 ERA and 1.47 WHIP. San Diego’s lineup has hit a solid .306 (19-62) with a strong .842 OPS against Hudson in his career. The Padres will start Randy Vasquez. The righty projects to give up just 1.9 earned runs with a 3.08 ERA and 1.07 WHIP. With the starting pitching clearly in San Diego’s favor, look for the Padres to notch an easy home win in this game on Monday night.
Play PADRES (-1.5 runline).
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Drew Martin
Major League Baseball
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Jumping back on the Phillies after the setback yesterday. Philadelphia is sporting the best record in baseball and has been great on the road, going (13-6) on the highway. Starter Christopher Sanchez has been great, letting up 1 earned run in four of his last five starts.
The Mets are coming off a nice come from behind win in Sunday Night Baseball. Sean Manaea gets the start and the lefty has decent overall numbers, although just a 31/19 strikeout to walk ratio. That many free passes and not missing very many bats is a tough matchup going against one of the best lineups in MLB.
Phillies bullpen has pitched better of late. Laying less than 20 cents in the overnight betting markets is what we are hammering. This number likely inflates by first pitch. Bet the Phillies.
Talked about this game on today's “Drew's Daily Diamond” which should be posted on the Wagertalk Youtube….
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Las Vegas Cris
Major League Baseball
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2% OAK ML (+159) listed/listed
- Would you believe OAK, over the L14, is a top-5 offense vs RHP: .251 BA / .349 OPB / .809 OPS / .209 ISO
- HOU is no slouch vs RHP, but OAK trumps them in each category by a good margin
- OAK has a much better bullpen (top 5) vs a bottom 10 in HOU
- Might be the series that causes HOU to consider waving the white flag.
Good to +142
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Sean Alvarez
Major League Baseball
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KC +133
The Royals enter today with the 3rd highest batting average across the last 15 days (.264) and are doing so with plate discipline as they have struck out the 5th lowest across the league (90 K’s). The Mariners have had the opposite success as they are hitting .233 but have struck out 136 times.
Kirby takes the ball for the Mariners who did have good outings 3 and 4 starts back but was against 2 weak lineups in COL/ARI. His strike out numbers are down so far this year, and he was touched up for 4 earned runs while giving up 3 homeruns last time out against MIN. Brady Singer has been a pitcher that the Royals can depend on as he has only given up more than 1 earned run in 2 of his 8 starts so far this season and now faces a lineup is who prone to extend the strike zone.
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Pimlico Race Report 5/18/2024 Saturday
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Dwayne Bryant
Major League Baseball
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My MLB plays are determined by statistical data (standard and advanced metrics from fangraphs.com), history involving similar games and situations (researched through the SDQL database), and current market data. A play is made when enough of these factors align. The play's size is determined by how many of these factors align, how much value is perceived, and how confident I am about the play.
KEY SITUATIONAL ANGLE(S):
The OVER is 11-0-1 since the 2022 season when Chris Flexen starts against an opponent from the opposite league.
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Dave Cokin
Major League Baseball
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Also playable at Under 4.5 -125
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Jeff Michaels
Major League Baseball
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Washington Nationals (-127) over Chi. White Sox — WAS w/ Williams —
Williams has been dominant this season so far, 4-0 w/ a 1.96 ERA! On top of that, the Nationals have been a better team on the road this season and come into Chicago against a White Sox team that definitely over-performed vs. expectations this weekend.
Chicago has put up just 2.7 runs/game in the L7 but they still managed to take 3 out 4 from Cleveland in the divisional series this weekend. Cleveland has struggled in the L2Y vs. the AL Central though, and I don’t think that momentum will continue into the inter-league series for the White Sox.
Chicago is just 10-24 vs. RHP TY and Williams is one of the hottest pitchers in the league early in this 2024 season.
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Jeff’s MLB Weekly Records Report
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Jeff's MLB Weekly Records ReportEvery Monday on my homepage at WagerTalk I will be loading an updated stat report. This sheet has been updated with games through Sunday, May 12th. It includes both season-to-date records and records for the last 10 days for Money Line, Run Line and Over/Unders including the average line and the profit.Records a ...
Mark Zinno
Major League Baseball
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The Nationals start a three game series with the White Sox in Chicago. Washington will start Trevor Williams who has been their best starter. He's 4-0 with a 1.96 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP. He's only allowed 27 hits in 36.2 innings and he's yet to give up a home run. He's facing a White Sox team that is dead last in MLB in batting average, OPS and wRC+ on the season. The Nationals will go up against Chris Flexen. His numbers aren't a far departure from what happened last year with a 4.29 ERA and 1.21 WHIP. The White Sox bullpen isn't terrible but gives up a ton of this and has a bottom five bullpen WHIP and they've given up the fourth most home runs of any bullpen this year. This a a great price for a Nationals team that is 6-1 when Williams is on the mound.
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Tokyo Brandon
Major League Baseball
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The Dodgers come off a horrible loss in which Darvish absolutely humiliated them. They looked like fools. Ohtani had the day off and they did not have to use any of their good bullpen pitchers.
The Dodgers hit better, field better, pitch better and have their #2 starter on the mound. They should win this easily.
| SP | TEAM | BATTING | BULLPEN | SP | FARM | TEAM RANK | |
| Yoshinobu Yamamoto | LAD | 12.9 | 2.0 | 9.6 | 3.0 | 8.2 | |
| Jordan Hicks | SFG | 23.6 | 7.8 | 14.1 | 23.0 | 15.1 |
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Jimmy Adams
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Fun MLB Stats - History Guides Your MLB Bets?
Which American League Teams Have Won The Most Regular Season Games?
The top winning team here is the Seattle Mariners of 2001. They grabbed 116 wins, but then… choked and lost the ALCS. After the Mariners the Yankees in 1998 won a ton of games - 114, in fact, and won the World Series to boot.
After those two MLB behemoths, the Cleveland Indians won 111 times in the regular season in 1954, the Yankees captured 110 wins way back in 1927 and then we have the Baltimore Orioles winning 109 wins in 1969 - but failed to win the World Series.
Which National League Teams Have Won The Most Regular Season Games?
The Chicago Cubs take it. 116 games in 1906. Nuts. They went 116-36. The LA Dodgers plop in behind them, going 111-51 in 2022. The 1909 Pirates pulled off 110 wins. The Mets (really! The Mets!) won a whopping 108 games in 1986 and the Cincy Red of 1975 tied them at 108 games won as well.
Which Teams Have Won the Most World Series'?
Wait, the World Series has been happening since 1903? Indeed it has! And man have we seen a lot of winners and quite a few dynasties.
Naturally, the Yankees top the list of dynasties - they've captured 27 World Series titles. Following WAY behind the Yankees are the St Louis Cardinals with 11 titles, the Boston Red Sox and Oakland Athletics with 9 apiece, and the San Francisco Giants with 8 World Series titles.
Which Player Has Won the Most World Series Titles?
Yogi Berra. Nothing else to say here, obviously it was Yogi. 10 World Series titles!
